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Related Experiment Videos

Advanced illness index: Predictive modeling to stratify elders using self-report data.

Kathleen K Brody1, Nancy A Perrin, Richard Dellapenna

  • 1Center for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente, Portland, Oregon, USA.

Journal of Palliative Medicine
|December 26, 2006
PubMed
Summary
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A new prediction model identifies individuals at high risk of mortality within 36 months. This helps target advanced care planning and integrated services for at-risk populations.

Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Health Services Research
  • Predictive Analytics

Background:

  • Identifying individuals at high risk of mortality is crucial for proactive healthcare.
  • Advanced care planning (ACP) requires accurate risk stratification to be effective.
  • Managed care organizations can leverage predictive models to optimize resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a prediction model for identifying individuals at increased risk of mortality within 36 months.
  • To facilitate targeted resource allocation and assessment for advanced care planning.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study utilizing a 3-year observation period.
  • Analysis of survey data from 4888 beneficiaries aged 65-105 within an integrated managed care organization.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Survey instrument included measures of physical function, geriatric syndromes, healthcare utilization, and self-care deficits.

    • Main Results:

    • An 11-variable prediction model significantly improved risk classification (chi2 from 315.71 to 742.511).
    • The model achieved 74.3% correct classification and a negative predictive value of 92.2%.
    • The developed Advanced Illness Index (AII) model demonstrated stability over time.

    Conclusions:

    • The Advanced Illness Index (AII) model is a stable and reliable tool for predicting 36-month mortality risk.
    • Individuals identified as high-risk consistently remained at risk or died in subsequent years.
    • High-risk individuals should be informed about available integrated services and targeted for advanced care planning, including treatment preferences and proxy designation.