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Ethics in Research01:56

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An Experimental Analysis of Children's Ability to Provide a False Report about a Crime
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When should potentially false research findings be considered acceptable?

Benjamin Djulbegovic1, Iztok Hozo

  • 1Department of Interdisciplinary Oncology, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States of America. Benjamin.Djulbegovic@moffitt.org

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Summary

Society must determine when research findings are acceptable, balancing potential benefits against harms. This involves assessing "acceptable regret" and tolerance for false positives in scientific discovery.

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Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Research Methodology
  • Scientific Integrity

Background:

  • John Ioannidis's work suggests a high prevalence of false research findings.
  • Society lacks clear criteria for accepting potentially false research results.
  • Previous models did not define thresholds for research result acceptance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a model for determining the probability at which research findings become acceptable.
  • To integrate research benefits and harms into a decision-making framework.
  • To establish criteria for accepting research results based on societal tolerance for error.

Main Methods:

  • Combined two previously published models to create a new probability-based model.
  • Introduced the concept of "acceptable regret" to quantify tolerance for erroneous acceptance.
  • Applied the model to develop a framework for early stopping rules in clinical trials.

Main Results:

  • Research acceptance probability is contingent on expected benefits and harms.
  • Societal willingness to tolerate error significantly impacts acceptance thresholds.
  • The "acceptable regret" framework provides a quantifiable measure for decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • Absolute research truth is unattainable; societal decisions on accepting imperfect results are necessary.
  • The new model offers a framework for evaluating research findings, particularly in clinical research.
  • Defining acceptable regret is crucial for establishing when research results meet societal standards.