Increase in common longevity and the compression of mortality: the case of Japan

This study shows a strong increase in the modal age at death (M) in Japan over a period of 50 calendar years, accompanied by a clear decrease in the standard deviation of ages at death above M (SD(M+)) until the 1990s for men and the mid-1980s for women. For the most recent periods SD(M+) appears to have stopped decreasing, even though M has continued to increase linearly. This stagnation in SD(M+) has been accompanied by stagnation in q(M). The number of deaths at M (d(M)) and the number of deaths at and above M (d(M+)) have increased, but significantly more slowly since the period 1975-79. Since the 1980s an acceleration in the increase of M+kSD(M+), our indicator of the longest life durations, has been essentially due to the pause in SD(M+). Our data do not suggest that we are approaching an upper limit in human longevity.