Prognostic impact of pulmonary arterial hypertension: a population-based analysis

Although pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is widely accepted as deadly, if not a rare disease, its prognostic impact beyond reports from specialist centres is unknown.

Using the unique Scottish Morbidity Record Scheme and linked survival data, we tracked the survival of all Scottish adults aged < or =65 years admitted for the first time during the period of 1986 to 2001 with a probable diagnosis of Idiopathic PAH and a PAH related to connective tissue disorders (Connective PAH) and congenital abnormalities (Congenital PAH) - the three most common forms of PAH.

Overall, 374 Scottish men and women were discharged from the hospital with incident PAH during the period 1986 to 2001. On an unadjusted basis, Congenital PAH (40-45%) was associated with the lowest case fatality at 5 years in both men and women. In both sexes, Idiopathic PAH and Connective PAH were associated with high initial one-year case fatality (20-30%) with a steady accumulation of fatal events in the four years thereafter (60-75% case fatality at 5 years). Overall, the adjusted risk of dying within one year in the period 1986 to 1989 was 2.22-fold greater (OR 95% CI, 1.27 to 3.85) than in 1998 to 2001 (P<0.001). The greatest falls in one year case fatality were seen in those with Connective PAH (18-fold increased risk of dying in 1986 to 1989 versus 1998 to 2001: P=0.013). Similarly, women (adjusted OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63: P<0.001) and the most deprived individuals (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.17 to 4.82: P<0.05) were at greater risk of dying within 5 years. Alternatively, those patients discharged in 1997 were less likely to die during this period compared to their 1986 counterparts, although this difference did not quite reach statistical significance (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.06: P=0.056).

This population-based study has confirmed the deadly impact of the three most common forms of PAH. Overall, there are encouraging trends in relation to one and five year adjusted survival rates; particularly in relation to PAH related to connective tissue disorders.