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Updated: Jul 14, 2026

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
[Communicating risk--a matter of chance?]
Lene Søndergaard Yoon1, Jørgen Nexøe, Jesper Bo Nielsen
1Syddansk Universitet, Institut for Sundhedstjenesteforskning, Miljømedicin.
Introduction:
Statistics and a good understanding of numbers are important professional tools for doctors in order to understand and communicate risk estimates.
Materials And Methods:
In this questionnaire survey carried out among 129 specialist trainees the ability to calculate and compare risk values (Relative Risk Reduction, Absolute Risk Reduction, Number Needed to Treat and a combination of these) was examined along with the general understanding of numbers in relation to probabilities.
Results:
The survey showed that 69% of the participants were able to calculate a risk reduction accurately. Answers from the respondents did not depend on whether information was given as absolute or relative risk reductions. 13% of the participants were able to correctly estimate the risk of a false positive answer in connection with screening.
Conclusion:
The trainee doctors demonstrated a surprisingly poor ability to make basic probability calculations and a poor understanding of screening results. A thorough understanding of risk measures as well as basic probabilities is a prerequisite for good objective patient information. This survey indicates that there is considerable room for improvement in these areas.
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