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Modeling values for anti-terrorism analysis.

Ralph L Keeney1

  • 1Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0120, USA. keeneyr@aol.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|July 21, 2007
PubMed
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Developing value models quantifies decision objectives for effective anti-terrorism analysis. This approach aids in designing counter-terrorism strategies and understanding potential threats by modeling terrorist priorities and actions.

Area of Science:

  • Decision Analysis
  • Operations Research
  • Security Studies

Background:

  • Effective decision-making relies on clearly defined objectives.
  • Value models provide a quantitative framework for representing and analyzing objectives.
  • Anti-terrorism efforts require robust analytical tools to assess threats and develop countermeasures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the utility of value models in supporting anti-terrorism analysis.
  • To outline procedures for developing value models applicable to both security agencies and adversary organizations.
  • To illustrate the application of value modeling in understanding terrorist motivations and potential actions.

Main Methods:

  • Qualitative identification of decision objectives.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Quantitative representation of objectives within a value model framework.
  • Development of value models for both the Department of Homeland Security and terrorist organizations.
  • Case study: Development of a terrorist value model for plutonium theft and misuse.

    • Main Results:

    • Value models offer a structured approach to analyzing complex decisions in anti-terrorism.
    • Modeling terrorist objectives provides insights into their potential priorities and actions.
    • The methodology is adaptable for designing effective anti-terrorism strategies and evaluating alternatives.

    Conclusions:

    • Clearly identifying objectives and developing value models are crucial for informed anti-terrorism decision-making.
    • Value models enhance the analysis of security alternatives and adversary behavior.
    • Further development and application of value models can significantly strengthen national security efforts.