Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 13, 2026

Modeling Ascending Vaginal Infection, Preterm Birth, and Neonatal Morbidity in Mice
Published on: October 10, 2025
Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
M G Roberts1, J A P Heesterbeek
1Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. m.g.roberts@massey.ac.nz
Abstract:
We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number R0 early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of R0 with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of R0, and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Prevalence and Incidence
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health condition at a...
Introduction to Epidemiology
Relative Risk
Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data

