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Infection thresholds for two interacting pathogens in a wild animal population.

M G Roberts1

  • 1New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study and the Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.

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|July 14, 2024
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study models two interacting pathogen variants in wildlife. We determined conditions for one variant to invade when another is present, revealing scenarios of exclusion, independence, or transmission enhancement.

Keywords:
Basic reproduction numberEcologyEpidemiologyInteracting pathogen variantsInvasion thresholdsNext-generation matrix

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Disease Ecology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Understanding pathogen dynamics is crucial for wildlife health and conservation.
  • Interactions between pathogen variants can significantly alter disease spread and impact.
  • Wild animal populations face complex infectious disease challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the dynamics of two interacting pathogen variants within a wild animal host population.
  • To define invasion thresholds for competing pathogen variants using mathematical approaches.
  • To identify specific criteria for various interaction outcomes between pathogen variants.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the next-generation matrix approach to analyze pathogen variant dynamics.
  • Defined invasion criteria for a new variant when a resident variant is established.
  • Developed explicit conditions for different interaction scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Established criteria for competitive exclusion between pathogen variants.
  • Identified conditions where one variant dominates or is eliminated.
  • Characterized scenarios of independent population dynamics regardless of infection order.
  • Defined conditions for synergistic or antagonistic interactions, including transmission enhancement.

Conclusions:

  • The model provides a framework for predicting pathogen variant interactions in wildlife.
  • Understanding these dynamics is key to managing disease outbreaks in animal populations.
  • The criteria offer insights into factors driving pathogen evolution and persistence.