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Modeling plague persistence in host-vector communities in California.

Janet E Foley1, Jennifer Zipser, Bruno Chomel

  • 1Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA. jefoley@ucdavis.edu

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Summary

Enzootic plague persistence in the western US may occur when susceptible rodents are infected by multiple, less competent flea species. This mathematical model, PlagueSIRS, helps understand Yersinia pestis transmission dynamics.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Plague is enzootic in the western US, but long-term persistence mechanisms are unclear.
  • Understanding host-vector interactions is crucial for predicting disease emergence.
  • Specific transmission and recovery rates for enzootic plague are not well-defined.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model (PlagueSIRS) for enzootic plague in the western US.
  • To describe Yersinia pestis transmission between rodents and fleas using a SIRS framework.
  • To identify key parameters influencing plague persistence and emergence.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a discrete-time SIRS mathematical model (PlagueSIRS) using matrix manipulation in R.
  • Incorporated environmental stochasticity and seasonality into the simulation.
  • Performed sensitivity analysis on model parameters and variables.

Main Results:

  • Model sensitivity was highest for flea attack rate, host recovery rate, and rodent carrying capacity.
  • The model was relatively insensitive to latent infection duration, host/vector competence, and host mortality.
  • Enzootic plague was predicted under specific conditions: susceptible but non-morbid rodents, multiple poorly competent fleas, and year-round flea presence.

Conclusions:

  • Mathematical modeling can predict enzootic plague persistence under specific ecological conditions.
  • Key factors for plague maintenance include host susceptibility/resistance balance and vector competence.
  • The PlagueSIRS model can be adapted for other vector-borne diseases and guide future sylvatic plague research.