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Does the H index have predictive power?

J E Hirsch1

  • 1Department of Physics, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0319, USA. jhirsch@ucsd.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|November 28, 2007
PubMed
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The h-index accurately predicts future scientific achievement, outperforming other common metrics like total citations or paper count. This bibliometric indicator offers a reliable measure of an individual's research impact and potential.

Area of Science:

  • Bibliometrics
  • Scientometrics
  • Research Assessment

Background:

  • Assessing individual scientific achievement is crucial for career progression and funding.
  • Bibliometric indicators are widely used but their predictive power for future success varies.
  • The h-index has gained prominence, necessitating comparison with other established metrics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically evaluate the predictive accuracy of the h-index for future scientific achievement.
  • To compare the h-index's predictive power against other bibliometric indicators.
  • To identify factors contributing to the h-index's predictive superiority.

Main Methods:

  • An empirical study was conducted to analyze bibliometric data.
  • The predictive performance of the h-index was compared with total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count.

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  • Statistical analyses were employed to assess predictive power.

    • Main Results:

    • The h-index demonstrated superior predictive power for future scientific achievement compared to other indicators.
    • Total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count showed lower predictive accuracy.
    • The study provides quantitative evidence for the h-index's effectiveness.

    Conclusions:

    • The h-index is a more reliable predictor of future scientific achievement than traditional metrics.
    • The findings support the use of the h-index in research evaluation and assessment.
    • Understanding the reasons for the h-index's superiority can refine research impact analysis.