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Reducing the risk of human extinction.

Jason G Matheny¹

¹Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. jmatheny@jhsph.edu

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|December 14, 2007

Summary

Human extinction risks, though low probability, have high value for prevention, representing all future lives. This study examines challenges in studying these risks and estimates the cost-effectiveness of averting asteroid impacts.

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Area of Science:

Existential risk studies
Global catastrophic risk assessment
Humanity's future

Background:

Numerous potential threats could lead to human extinction in the 21st century.
While individual risks may have low probabilities, their potential impact necessitates consideration.
The value of preventing extinction is immense, encompassing all potential future human lives.

Purpose of the Study:

To review the significant challenges associated with studying human extinction risks.
To provide an example of cost-effectiveness analysis for mitigating specific existential threats.
To inform policy and resource allocation for existential risk reduction.

Main Methods:

Literature review of challenges in quantifying and addressing existential risks.
Development of a framework for estimating the value of preventing human extinction.
Case study: Cost-effectiveness analysis of asteroid impact prevention strategies.

Main Results:

Studying extinction risks is complex due to low probabilities and high uncertainties.
Preventing extinction events holds substantial expected value, justifying significant investment.
Asteroid impact prevention is a potentially cost-effective strategy for mitigating existential risk.

Conclusions:

Addressing human extinction risks is crucial for safeguarding humanity's long-term future.
Further research and investment are needed to effectively manage global catastrophic risks.
Proactive measures, like asteroid defense, offer a viable approach to reducing existential threats.