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Updated: Jul 6, 2026
13:04
Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a dynamic economic evaluation model for vaccination programs
Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens1, Kimberly M Thompson, M G Myriam Hunink
1Delft University of Technology, Department of Mathematics, Delft, The Netherlands. rduintje@hsph.harvard.edu
Summary
Choosing the right sensitivity analysis method is crucial for public health models. Different methods yield varying insights and input importance rankings, impacting policy recommendations.
Area of Science:
- Mathematical modeling in public health
- Health economics and outcomes research
Background:
- Mathematical models are vital for public health policy decisions.
- There is a growing need for robust uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.
- Current practices often involve single analysis methods, limiting comparative insights.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how different sensitivity analysis methods affect model insights.
- To compare the importance rankings of model inputs across various methods.
- To guide the selection of appropriate sensitivity analysis techniques.
Main Methods:
- Applied 1-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses.
- Utilized design of experiments and Morris' method.
- Computed partial derivatives and probabilistic sensitivity measures (correlations, regression coefficients, correlation ratio).
- Employed a dynamic cost-effectiveness model of an infectious disease.
Main Results:
- The choice of sensitivity analysis method significantly influences the magnitude and ranking of input importance.
- Different methods provide distinct insights into model behavior and key drivers.
- No single method universally captures all aspects of model sensitivity.
Conclusions:
- Modelers should be aware that sensitivity analysis results vary by method.
- Recommendations are provided for selecting methods based on model complexity and desired insights.
- Comparative analysis of methods enhances the understanding and reliability of model-based policy recommendations.
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