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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 6, 2026

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Published on: September 12, 2014

Unrealistic optimism and event threat.

¹Deakin University, Victoria, Australia. rongold@deakin.edu.au

Psychology, Health & Medicine

|March 20, 2008

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

People often display unrealistic optimism, believing they face less risk than others. This study shows that higher perceived threat increases this optimism, especially when personal risk is considered first.

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Area of Science:

Psychology
Health Behavior
Cognitive Bias

Background:

Unrealistic optimism (UO) is the tendency to underestimate personal risk for negative events.
This bias may stem from a motivational need for self-reassurance when facing perceived threats.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate if perceived event threat influences unrealistic optimism.
To examine the moderating role of question order on the relationship between event threat and UO.

Main Methods:

A study with 148 students assessed perceptions of heart disease risk.
Participants were exposed to either low-threat or high-threat information about diet-related heart disease.
Own risk and average risk perceptions were measured, with counterbalanced question order.

Main Results:

Event threat significantly interacted with question order.
UO increased with higher event threat, but only when participants rated their own risk before the average risk.
When average risk was assessed first, event threat did not affect UO.

Conclusions:

Motivational factors, specifically the need for reassurance, appear to drive UO.
Health education strategies should consider the impact of perceived threat and question framing on risk perception.