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Unrealistic Optimism Bias01:30

Unrealistic Optimism Bias

Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 31, 2026

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
08:24

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: August 25, 2023

When does event valence affect unrealistic optimism?

Ron S Gold1, Phillip N de Sousa

  • 1School of Psychology, Deakin University, Victoria, Australia. rongold@deakin.edu.au

Psychology, Health & Medicine
|July 13, 2011
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Unrealistic optimism (UO) is higher for negative events than positive ones. This "valence effect" occurs when events evoke concern, suggesting motivational factors influence optimistic bias in health perceptions.

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Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
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Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

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Last Updated: May 31, 2026

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05:22

Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: May 9, 2019

Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Health Behavior
  • Social Cognition

Background:

  • Unrealistic optimism (UO) is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their likelihood of experiencing positive events and underestimate negative ones.
  • Previous research indicates UO is more pronounced for negative (undesirable) events compared to positive (desirable) events, a phenomenon termed the 'valence effect'.
  • The underlying mechanisms driving this valence effect require further investigation, particularly the role of motivational processes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether motivational processes explain the observed valence effect in unrealistic optimism.
  • To examine how manipulating the perceived level of concern associated with a health event influences the valence effect.
  • To explore the implications of these findings for health education strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted with student participants (N=249 total).
  • Unrealistic optimism (UO) for a health event was measured, with event valence manipulated (negative vs. positive framing).
  • The degree of concern evoked by the event was varied by manipulating avoidance ease (Study 1) or consequence severity (Study 2).

Main Results:

  • A consistent pattern emerged across both studies: the valence effect (greater UO for negative events) was evident only when the health event was framed to evoke concern.
  • When the event was framed to evoke little concern, the valence effect was not observed.
  • This suggests that the motivational relevance of an event is a key factor in the manifestation of the valence effect.

Conclusions:

  • The findings support a motivational explanation for the valence effect in unrealistic optimism.
  • The degree to which an event evokes concern significantly moderates the valence effect.
  • Understanding these motivational underpinnings is crucial for designing effective health education interventions that address optimistic bias.