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Related Experiment Videos

The trouble with overconfidence.

Don A Moore1, Paul J Healy

  • 1Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. don.moore@alumni.carleton.edu

Psychological Review
|April 23, 2008
PubMed
Summary
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This study reconciles three definitions of overconfidence, finding that task difficulty influences whether people overestimate or underestimate their performance and relative standing. Excessive precision in beliefs is a persistent form of overconfidence.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision science
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • The concept of overconfidence is defined in three ways in research: overestimation of performance, overplacement relative to others, and excessive precision of beliefs.
  • Existing literature presents conflicting findings on overconfidence, particularly regarding apparent underconfidence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconcile the three distinct definitions of overconfidence.
  • To explain the inconsistent findings in the literature regarding overconfidence and underconfidence.
  • To propose a unified theory explaining the interplay between different types of overconfidence.

Main Methods:

  • Review and synthesis of existing research definitions of overconfidence.
  • Experimental design to elicit different types of overconfidence (overestimation, overplacement, overprecision).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analysis of performance and belief data across tasks of varying difficulty.

    • Main Results:

    • Task difficulty influences the manifestation of overconfidence: difficult tasks lead to overestimation of performance but underplacement relative to others.
    • Easy tasks lead to underestimation of performance but overplacement relative to others.
    • Overprecision in beliefs is a persistent form of overconfidence that can reduce overestimation and overplacement.

    Conclusions:

    • A unified theory can explain the seemingly contradictory findings on overconfidence.
    • Overprecision plays a crucial role in moderating other forms of overconfidence.
    • Understanding these nuances is key to accurate models of human judgment and decision-making.