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Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Daniel F Doak1, James A Estes, Benjamin S Halpern

  • 1Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu

Ecology
|May 17, 2008
PubMed
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Ecological surprises, unexpected changes in species populations, are frequent in ecology. These surprises highlight the need for adaptive management strategies in conservation and resource management.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Ecology
  • Community Ecology

Background:

  • Ecological surprises, defined as substantial, unanticipated changes in species abundance due to previously unknown processes, are common in ecological studies.
  • These surprises occur in both experimental and observational settings within community and population ecology.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To document and exemplify ecological surprises.
  • To survey experienced field ecologists regarding their encounters with surprising ecological phenomena.
  • To classify the types of ecological surprises and explore their underlying causes.

Main Methods:

  • Review of ecological literature and case studies illustrating ecological surprises.
  • Survey of established field ecologists to gather anecdotal evidence of surprises.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Classification of surprises into dynamic-based, pattern-based, and intervention-based categories.

    • Main Results:

    • A significant majority of surveyed ecologists have experienced one or more ecological surprises.
    • Ecological surprises are sufficiently common to warrant consideration in ecological characterization and natural resource management.
    • Common processes underlying ecological surprises were speculated upon.

    Conclusions:

    • Ecological surprises are a fundamental aspect of ecological systems, challenging simple prediction models.
    • The prevalence of surprises necessitates precautionary and adaptive management approaches for both exploited and conserved ecological communities.
    • Improved analytical methods alone are insufficient to fully address the inherent uncertainty in ecological predictions.