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Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?
Daniel F Doak1, James A Estes, Benjamin S Halpern
1Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu
Ecology
|May 17, 2008
Summary
Ecological surprises, unexpected changes in species populations, are frequent in ecology. These surprises highlight the need for adaptive management strategies in conservation and resource management.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Population Ecology
- Community Ecology
Background:
- Ecological surprises, defined as substantial, unanticipated changes in species abundance due to previously unknown processes, are common in ecological studies.
- These surprises occur in both experimental and observational settings within community and population ecology.
Purpose of the Study:
- To document and exemplify ecological surprises.
- To survey experienced field ecologists regarding their encounters with surprising ecological phenomena.
- To classify the types of ecological surprises and explore their underlying causes.
Main Methods:
- Review of ecological literature and case studies illustrating ecological surprises.
- Survey of established field ecologists to gather anecdotal evidence of surprises.
- Classification of surprises into dynamic-based, pattern-based, and intervention-based categories.
Main Results:
- A significant majority of surveyed ecologists have experienced one or more ecological surprises.
- Ecological surprises are sufficiently common to warrant consideration in ecological characterization and natural resource management.
- Common processes underlying ecological surprises were speculated upon.
Conclusions:
- Ecological surprises are a fundamental aspect of ecological systems, challenging simple prediction models.
- The prevalence of surprises necessitates precautionary and adaptive management approaches for both exploited and conserved ecological communities.
- Improved analytical methods alone are insufficient to fully address the inherent uncertainty in ecological predictions.
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