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Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2001-2031.

Patricia M Kiely¹, Ernest Healy, Peregrine Horton

¹Optometrists Association Australia, Melbourne, Australia. p.kiely@optometrists.asn.au

Clinical & Experimental Optometry

|July 8, 2008

Summary

Australian optometrist supply is projected to meet demand by 2031. However, workforce numbers could significantly exceed or fall short based on growth scenarios for graduates and immigration.

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Area of Science:

Health Workforce Planning
Optometry Workforce Analysis
Population Health Modeling

Background:

Health workforce supply is influenced by graduate numbers, retention, and immigration.
This report models the Australian optometric workforce and service demand from 2001 to 2031.
Two contrasting optometric supply scenarios are presented.

Purpose of the Study:

To project the Australian optometric workforce supply and compare it with projected service demand.
To analyze the impact of different growth scenarios on future optometry workforce adequacy.

Main Methods:

Utilized Australian Bureau of Statistics census data (2001) on optometrists' age and gender.
Projected workforce data over 30 years, incorporating aging, attrition, new graduates, and migration.
Compared projected workforce numbers with estimated demand for optometric services to 2031.

Main Results:

In 2031, a projected 4,072 full-time equivalent optometrists are anticipated, a 6.9% surplus over demand.
A 'high' growth scenario predicts up to a 30% oversupply.
A 'low' growth scenario indicates a potential undersupply of at least 21.5%.

Conclusions:

Current trends suggest adequate optometrist numbers to meet demand by 2031 if utilization remains stable or increases.
Projected workforce adequacy is sensitive to changes in key factors like graduate intake and immigration.
Scenario planning highlights the variability in future optometric workforce supply.