Scenario-analysis evaluating semergency strategies after rabies re-introduction

Area of Science:

• Veterinary epidemiology
• Disease control modeling
• Wildlife rabies management

Background:

• Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) has significantly reduced rabies in Western Europe over 25 years.
• Maintaining rabies-free status necessitates preparedness for re-introduction from endemic regions.
• Cost-efficient emergency strategies are crucial to avoid large-scale vaccination campaigns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To adapt a spatial simulation model for rabies re-introduction into previously cleared areas.
• To evaluate various local emergency vaccination strategies for rabies control.
• To identify optimal approaches balancing public health, failure, and budgetary risks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an approved spatially-explicit simulation model of rabies spread and control.
• Adapted the model to simulate rabies re-introduction scenarios into rabies-free zones.
• Conducted systematic simulation experiments to assess different emergency vaccination tactics (e.g., ring-vaccination vs. area treatment).

Main Results:

• Evaluated the performance of strategic options considering public health, failure, and budgetary risks.
• Identified efficiency relationships between different control strategies.
• Results challenge pre-existing management recommendations for emergency rabies response.

Conclusions:

• Preparedness for rabies re-introduction is essential for maintaining disease-free status in Western Europe.
• Simulation modeling provides valuable insights into optimizing emergency rabies control strategies.
• Effective emergency planning requires a nuanced understanding of strategy performance beyond initial assumptions.