Using kindergarten number sense to predict calculation fluency in second grade

Children's number sense in kindergarten was used to predict their calculation fluency in second grade (N = 198). Using block entry regression, usual predictors of age, reading, memory, and verbal and spatial cognition were entered in the first block and number sense measures were added in the second block. Number sense measures contributed a significant amount of variance over and above the more general predictors (26%-42%). Uniquely predictive subareas were active memory for numbers, number knowledge, and number combinations, with number combinations standing out as the strongest single predictor. Number sense screening in kindergarten, using "at-risk" versus "not-at-risk" criteria, successfully ruled out 84% of the children who did not go on to have calculation fluency difficulties and positively identified 52% of the children who later showed fluency difficulties. The relation of early number skills to later calculation fluency has important implications for math screening and intervention.