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Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations
1Department of Statistics, University of Joensuu, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland. juha.alho@joensuu.fi
Demography
|October 23, 2008
Summary
European population decline and aging are significant concerns. This study models how migration, while potentially youth-enhancing, can also accelerate aging due to age-specific patterns, impacting population growth and age structure.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- European fertility rates are below replacement levels, leading to population decline.
- Increasing life expectancy exacerbates population aging.
- Migration is considered a strategy to mitigate population aging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a stable, open-population model to study the migration-fertility trade-off.
- To analyze the dual effect of migration on population growth and age structure.
- To quantify the impact of net migration on population dynamics in European countries.
Main Methods:
- Development of a stable, open-population model where cohort net migration is proportional to births.
- Introduction of a migration-survivor function to capture the age pattern of net migration.
- Quantification of net migration effects using data from 17 European countries.
Main Results:
- Migration can increase population growth rate, potentially rejuvenating the age distribution.
- The age pattern of migration can counteract rejuvenation, potentially accelerating aging.
- Some European countries exhibit migration levels leading to population stationarity.
Conclusions:
- Migration presents a complex trade-off influencing both population growth and age structure.
- For countries with declining populations, migration can still slow down overall population aging.
- Understanding migration's age-specific effects is crucial for demographic policy in Europe.
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