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Modeling the evolution of insect phenology.

Brian P Yurk1, James A Powell

  • 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-3900, USA. brian.yurk@aggiemail.usu.edu

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Insect phenology, or developmental timing, is disrupted by climate change, risking survival and reproduction. This study models how insect populations can genetically evolve their development time to adapt to changing temperatures and resource availability.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Climate Change Biology

Background:

  • Climate change alters temperature, impacting insect developmental timing (phenology).
  • Shifting phenology can lead to mismatches with resources and environmental extremes, affecting insect survival and reproduction.
  • Disrupted phenology can also cause loss of within-population synchrony, hindering mating and resource exploitation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if genetic evolution of insect development time can occur rapidly enough to counteract climate change impacts.
  • To develop a novel modeling approach for the evolution of phenology under environmental change.
  • To predict insect population responses to warming temperatures and altered resource phenology.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a novel evolutionary phenology model where model parameters evolve under selection.
  • Utilized the Laplace method for asymptotic approximations of temporal variation in mean and variance.
  • Characterized invariant distributions under periodic temperatures to identify stable evolutionary outcomes.
  • Conducted numerical simulations to assess population evolution under varying temperature regimes.

Main Results:

  • The evolutionary phenology model predicts populations evolve towards steady distributions under periodic temperatures.
  • These steady distributions allow for generational synchrony (parent-offspring emergence in the same season).
  • The model provides a framework for predicting evolutionary adaptation of insect phenology to climate change.

Conclusions:

  • Genetic evolution of insect development time is a potential mechanism for adapting to climate change.
  • The developed model demonstrates how insect populations may evolve phenology to maintain synchrony with environmental cues and resources.
  • This research offers insights into the adaptive capacity of insects facing rapid environmental shifts.