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Accounting for risk in valuing forest carbon offsets
Matthew D Hurteau1, Bruce A Hungate, George W Koch
1Department of Biological Sciences and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, PO Box 6077, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. Matthew.Hurteau@nau.edu.
Forest carbon value should account for wildfire risk, as it varies by location and forest condition. Ignoring this risk overvalues forest carbon, impacting climate change mitigation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Forestry
- Climate Science
- Environmental Economics
Background:
- Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, mitigating global warming.
- US forest carbon stocks have increased, sequestering about 10% of annual emissions.
- Current carbon valuation methods do not account for disturbance risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess how wildfire risk influences forest carbon value.
- To evaluate the spatial variation in risk-scaled forest carbon value across the U.S.
Main Methods:
- Incorporating wildfire risk into forest carbon valuation models.
- Analyzing the impact of forest location and condition on carbon value.
Main Results:
- Wildfire risk significantly reduces forest carbon value, varying by location and forest condition.
- A trend of decreasing risk-scaled forest carbon value is observed from northern to southern continental U.S.
Conclusions:
- Disturbance risk is a critical factor for long-term forest carbon storage.
- Carbon trading mechanisms must incorporate disturbance risk to accurately value forest carbon.
- Adjusting carbon values for disturbance risk is essential for effective climate change mitigation.
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