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Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach
L Berrang-Ford1, J D Maclean, Theresa W Gyorkos
1Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC, Canada H3A 2K6.
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
|March 12, 2009
Summary
Climate change may increase malaria risk in Canada by creating suitable temperatures for transmission. This, combined with other factors, could lead to more imported and even local malaria cases.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Public health
- Infectious disease epidemiology
Background:
- Malaria is historically endemic in some parts of Canada.
- Current climate conditions in southern Canada can support malaria transmission.
- Existing competent malaria vectors are present in Canada.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence in Canada.
- To evaluate direct and indirect effects of climate change on malaria transmission.
- To challenge the assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada due to climate change.
Main Methods:
- Qualitative characterization using a systems framework.
- Assessment of climate change impacts on malaria vectors and transmission.
- Consideration of ecological and social trends.
Main Results:
- Climate change is projected to increase temperatures suitable for malaria transmission in Canada.
- Increased international travel and immigration contribute to imported malaria risk.
- Factors like drug resistance and diagnostic challenges may exacerbate the situation.
Conclusions:
- Climate change poses a growing risk for both imported and autochthonous malaria in Canada.
- Sporadic local malaria transmission may become possible.
- Canada must prepare for potential increases in malaria incidence.
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