Modelling the effects of land use and temporal factors on child pedestrian casualties

This study investigates the suitability of land use variables in predicting the number of child pedestrian casualties; a subject of concern in Great Britain despite sustained improvements in road safety over the past decade. The relationship between land use and transport is used to establish a link between land use and child pedestrian travel; trip attractors and generators are considered as variables that lead child pedestrians to exposure to high risk environments. Casualty records for Newcastle upon Tyne are analysed to reveal trends of temporal variation of child pedestrian casualty numbers. Land use data is combined with the casualty data using GIS techniques to generate relevant inputs for the analysis. Six Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are developed to analyse the association of child pedestrian casualty numbers and trip attractor land use types. Two are the main models; the first investigates all types of casualty data including slight, serious and fatal events and the second uses only KSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) data in the analysis. The other four models are developed to investigate the temporal variation of child pedestrian KSI and slight casualties over the day (school time and non-school time) and week (weekday and weekend). The results show that secondary retail and high density residential land use types are associated with all child pedestrian casualties. In addition, educational sites, junction density, primary retail and low density residential land use types are also associated with child casualties at different time periods of the day and week. The study findings are found to concur with the current child road safety policies in Great Britain and will, in fact, provide some guidance for local authorities to deliver successful child road safety audits.