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Published on: December 24, 2015
Bayesian rationality in evaluating multiple testimonies: incorporating the role of coherence
1Department of Psychology, Cardiff University, Tower Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT, Wales. harrisaj@cardiff.ac.uk
Summary
People often need to combine information from various sources. This study shows that the coherence, or how well reports fit together, significantly impacts how believable information is perceived, alongside prior beliefs and witness reliability.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
- Information Science
Background:
- Information aggregation is crucial in daily life and formal settings.
- Assessing the believability of information from multiple sources is complex.
- The coherence of reports has been an underresearched factor in information aggregation models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of report coherence on information believability.
- To extend Bayesian models of information aggregation to include coherence.
- To understand how people weigh coherence alongside other factors like prior beliefs and witness reliability.
Main Methods:
- Examined a modified version of Bayes' theorem.
- Incorporated witness reliability, prior beliefs, and report coherence into the model.
- Empirically tested how participants assess believability with varying levels of coherence.
Main Results:
- Participants' assessments of believability were sensitive to report coherence.
- The modified Bayesian model transparently demonstrated the effect of coherence.
- Coherence emerged as a significant factor in information believability, alongside traditional factors.
Conclusions:
- Coherence plays a vital role in how individuals evaluate aggregated information.
- Bayesian models can be enhanced to account for the impact of coherence.
- Future research should further explore the interplay of coherence and other factors in real-world information processing.
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