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The future of tropical forests.
1Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado, Balboa, Republic of Panama. wrightj@si.edu
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|June 12, 2010
Summary
Future tropical forests depend on five key drivers: land use change, wood extraction, hunting, atmospheric, and climate change. While deforestation rates decline, forest composition shifts due to these human impacts.
Area of Science:
- Tropical ecology
- Forestry
- Conservation science
Background:
- Five major anthropogenic drivers significantly impact tropical forests: land use change, wood extraction, hunting, atmospheric change, and climate change.
- These drivers are dynamic, with deforestation and logging shifting geographically, and hunting altering forest regeneration dynamics.
- While 7% of tropical land is protected, conservation efforts are often insufficient against hunting and global environmental changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the current state and future trajectory of tropical forests under anthropogenic pressure.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of conservation measures against ongoing environmental changes.
- To identify and predict mechanisms driving changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Assessment of contemporary land use change, including deforestation and forest regeneration rates.
- Analysis of wood extraction patterns, distinguishing between commercial logging and fuelwood consumption.
- Review of hunting impacts on animal populations and subsequent effects on plant regeneration.
- Evaluation of protected area effectiveness against local and global drivers.
Main Results:
- Net deforestation rates are decreasing pantropically, but old-growth forests are being replaced by secondary and logged forests.
- Hunting significantly reduces animal populations crucial for seed dispersal, altering forest species composition.
- Protected areas, while established, often fail to mitigate hunting impacts and are ineffective against atmospheric and climate change.
- Significant changes in the structure and dynamics of protected tropical forests are increasingly reported.
Conclusions:
- Human activities, particularly land use change, logging, and hunting, are reshaping tropical forests.
- Existing conservation strategies are inadequate to address the multifaceted threats, including climate change.
- Further research is needed to understand and predict the complex mechanisms driving tropical forest transformation.
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