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Published on: November 5, 2014
Using expert judgment to estimate marine ecosystem vulnerability in the California Current
Sarah J Teck1, Benjamin S Halpern, Carrie V Kappel
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA.
Summary
A new method uses expert judgment to assess ecosystem vulnerability to human activities. Intertidal zones like mudflats and salt marshes are most vulnerable, highlighting key areas for conservation and resource management.
Area of Science:
- Marine ecology
- Conservation science
- Decision science
Background:
- Ecosystem-based management requires comparing ecosystem responses to human impacts.
- Few empirical studies comprehensively inform resource allocation and cumulative effects assessment.
- Expert judgment is often used due to data limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a quantitative method for eliciting expert judgment on ecosystem vulnerability.
- To prioritize management of stressors across multiple ecosystems.
- To identify knowledge gaps in understanding ecosystem vulnerability.
Main Methods:
- Applied decision science methods to elicit expert judgment on ecosystem vulnerability.
- Surveyed 107 experts on 19 marine ecosystems and 53 human-related stressors in the California Current region.
- Analyzed expert criteria for vulnerability assessment, focusing on ecosystem resistance and affected species/trophic levels.
Main Results:
- Four intertidal ecosystems (mudflat, beach, salt marsh, rocky intertidal) identified as most vulnerable.
- Key stressors for coastal ecosystems include invasive species, ocean acidification, and sea temperature/level rise.
- Offshore ecosystems are most vulnerable to ocean acidification, destructive fishing, and shipwrecks.
Conclusions:
- The developed method provides a quantitative, transparent, and repeatable assessment of ecosystem vulnerability.
- Results offer a foundation for systematic ecosystem-based management by integrating vulnerability with human activity data.
- Identified vulnerable ecosystems and stressors can guide targeted conservation and resource allocation efforts.
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