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The Intermountain Risk Score (including the red cell distribution width) predicts heart failure and other morbidity
Benjamin D Horne1, Heidi T May, Abdallah G Kfoury
1Cardiovascular Department, Intermountain Medical Center, 5121 S. Cottonwood St., Salt Lake City, UT 84107, USA. benjamin.horne@imail.org
Insights
The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), derived from common blood tests, effectively predicts major clinical morbidities like heart failure and myocardial infarction, not just mortality. This score offers a low-cost method for early risk assessment and prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Clinical Medicine
- Cardiovascular Research
- Predictive Analytics
Background:
- The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) is established for mortality prediction using complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile.
- Morbidity endpoints are often more amenable to clinical intervention than mortality.
- The association of IMRS with morbidity requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if the Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) is associated with clinical morbidity endpoints.
- To explore the utility of IMRS beyond mortality prediction.
Main Methods:
- A genome-wide association study-like design was employed.
- Two independent cohorts of patients undergoing coronary angiography were used for initial evaluation and validation (n=3927 and n=10,413).
- Statistical significance was assessed using Bonferroni correction (P ≤ 4.9 × 10⁻⁴).
Main Results:
- IMRS significantly predicted multiple morbidity endpoints including heart failure (HF), coronary disease, myocardial infarction (MI), and atrial fibrillation in the first cohort.
- IMRS also predicted HF readmission, incident HF, and incident MI.
- All significant findings were successfully validated in the second patient cohort.
Conclusions:
- The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) is associated with key morbidity endpoints that frequently lead to mortality.
- The low-cost nature of its components (CBC and basic metabolic profile) suggests potential for widespread use in risk estimation.
- Further research is needed to fully define the clinical utility of IMRS in preventing morbidity and mortality.
Aims:
The complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile are common, low-cost blood tests, which have previously been used to create and validate the Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) for mortality prediction. Mortality is the most definitive clinical endpoint, but medical care is more easily applied to modify morbidity and thereby prevent death. This study tested whether IMRS is associated with clinical morbidity endpoints.
Methods And Results:
Patients seen for coronary angiography (n = 3927) were evaluated using a design similar to a genome-wide association study. The Bonferroni correction for 102 tests required a P-value of ≤ 4.9 × 10⁻⁴ for significance. A second set of angiography patients (n = 10 413) was used to validate significant findings from the first patient sample. In the first patient sample, IMRS predicted heart failure (HF) (P(trend) = 1.6 × 10(-26)), coronary disease (P(trend) = 2.6 × 10(-11)), myocardial infarction (MI) (P(trend) = 3.1 × 10(-25)), atrial fibrillation (P(trend) = 2.5 × 10(-20)), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P(trend) = 4.7 × 10⁻⁴). Even more, IMRS predicted HF readmission [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.29/category, P(trend) = 1.2 × 10⁻⁶), incident HF (HR = 1.88/category, P(trend) = 0.02), and incident MI (HR = 1.56/category, P(trend) = 4.7 × 10⁻⁴). These findings were verified in the second patient sample.
Conclusion:
Intermountain Risk Score, a predictor of mortality, was associated with morbidity endpoints that often lead to mortality. Further research is required to fully characterize its clinical utility, but its low-cost CBC and basic metabolic profile composition may make it ideal for initial risk estimation and prevention of morbidity and mortality. An IMRS web calculator is freely available at http://intermountainhealthcare.org/IMRS.
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