Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 9, 2026
07:42
Quantification of the Potential Impact of Glyphosate-Based Products on Microbiomes
Published on: January 10, 2022
The impact of consumer phase models in microbial risk analysis
Maarten Nauta1, Bjarke Christensen
1Technical University of Denmark, National Food Institute (DTU Food), Division of Microbiology and Risk Assessment, Mørkhøj Bygade, Søborg, Denmark. maana@food.dtu.dk
Summary
Consumer phase models (CPMs) in quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) can vary significantly. However, the relative risk reduction from control measures is often similar across different CPMs for Campylobacter in broiler meat.
Area of Science:
- Food safety
- Microbiological risk assessment
- Quantitative microbiology
Background:
- Consumer phase models (CPMs) are crucial in quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) but are complex due to variations in consumer food handling and data limitations.
- Subjective assumptions in CPM construction can impact QMRA results, but their influence is not always clear.
- Campylobacter in broiler meat presents a significant food safety challenge, necessitating accurate risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the performance of eight published consumer phase models (CPMs) for Campylobacter in broiler meat within a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) framework.
- To evaluate the impact of different CPMs on estimated illness probability and relative risk reduction from control measures.
- To determine if developing a new detailed CPM is necessary for each new QMRA.
Main Methods:
- Utilized eight distinct published CPMs for Campylobacter in broiler meat.
- Applied a single, consistent input distribution of microbial concentrations at retail across all CPMs.
- Employed an identical dose-response relationship for all model comparisons.
Main Results:
- Significant differences were observed in the estimated probability of illness per serving between the various CPMs.
- Estimated relative risk reductions showed less variation across CPMs when modeling control measure implementation.
- Control measures affecting Campylobacter prevalence resulted in proportional relative risk regardless of the CPM, while concentration-affecting measures showed CPM-dependent differences.
Conclusions:
- Developing a new detailed CPM for each QMRA may not be necessary for many applications, simplifying risk assessment processes.
- The choice of CPM can influence risk estimates, particularly for control strategies targeting highly contaminated food portions.
- Further observational data on consumer food handling practices are essential to generalize these findings and improve CPM accuracy.
Related Concept Videos
01:15Impact of Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Models: Regulatory Decisions
PK–PD modeling has significantly influenced FDA regulatory decisions, particularly drug approval, dosage optimization, and labeling. These models integrate pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) to predict drug behavior and effects, aiding in optimizing dosing regimens and enhancing the probability of clinical trial success.One notable example is Nesiritide (Natrecor®), a recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide for treating acute decompensated congestive heart failure (CHF).
01:23Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast, controlled...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast, controlled...
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least squares (OLS)...
01:25Rapid Identification of Pathogens
MALDI-TOF MS has transformed clinical microbiology by offering a rapid and reliable method for pathogen identification. The traditional approach to microbial identification typically involves time-consuming culture techniques and biochemical tests, which can delay the initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy. MALDI-TOF MS avoids these delays by using characteristic ribosomal protein mass patterns of microbial cells, enabling accurate species-level identification within minutes.Principle...
01:27Pharmacodynamic Models: Overview
Pharmacodynamic (PD) responses describe the interaction between a drug and its biological target, culminating in a physiological effect. These responses can be classified into different types: continuous variables, such as blood glucose levels; categorical outcomes, like survival rates; and time-to-event metrics, such as disease progression. Understanding and modeling PD responses are critical for optimizing drug efficacy and safety.PD models describe the relationship between drug concentration...
01:25Clinical Significance of Antibiotic Resistance
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presents a critical public health threat, arising from its capacity to resist β-lactam antibiotics due to acquisition of the mecA gene within the staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec). This gene encodes penicillin-binding protein 2a (PBP2a), which impairs binding efficacy of methicillin and other β-lactams. MRSA has evolved into distinct clonal lineages impacting humans and animals alike, reinforcing its significance within the One...