An evaluation of the Cariogram as a predictor model

As dentistry moves towards earlier detection of lesions and a more preventive rather than restorative approach, it is essential to improve the predictive values of new screening and diagnostic methods. This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the Cariogram in predicting the occurrence of caries in first permanent molars. Thirty children aged 8 years were included who were divided in two groups depending on presence of carious or non carious first permanent molars. Their Cariograms were plotted and the likelihood of caries as indicated by the Cariogram was compared to the actual occurrence of caries in first permanent molars. Results revealed that the Cariogram had a diagnostic accuracy of 63.33% thus emphasising the need for better prediction models.