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On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience
1University of Stavanger, Ullandhaug Stavanger 4036, Norway. terje.aven@uis.no
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 17, 2010
Summary
This study examines systems-based risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It highlights inconsistencies in defining these concepts, particularly the exclusion of uncertainty from vulnerability and resilience, and proposes an alternative framework.
Area of Science:
- Systems analysis
- Risk management
- Resilience engineering
Background:
- Growing interest in systems-based approaches for risk, vulnerability, and resilience.
- Current definitions of risk, vulnerability, and resilience are state-dependent.
- Risk is probability-based, while vulnerability and resilience definitions lack this dimension.
Purpose of the Study:
- To critically evaluate the current systems-based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis.
- To identify and question the inconsistency in incorporating uncertainty (probability) across these concepts.
- To propose and compare an alternative framework that logically integrates uncertainty into all three concepts.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of existing definitions of risk, vulnerability, and resilience.
- Examination of the rationale behind the inconsistent inclusion of uncertainty.
- Introduction and comparison of an alternative conceptual framework.
Main Results:
- Identified a key inconsistency: uncertainty (probability) is included in risk but not in vulnerability or resilience definitions.
- Demonstrated that this inconsistency challenges the logical coherence of the systems-based approach.
- An alternative framework is presented that consistently incorporates uncertainty across all three concepts.
Conclusions:
- The current systems-based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis exhibits a logical inconsistency regarding uncertainty.
- A revised framework is necessary for a more coherent and robust understanding and analysis of these critical concepts.
- Integrating uncertainty into the definitions of vulnerability and resilience is crucial for accurate systems analysis.
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