Hope over experience: desirability and the persistence of optimism

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Behavioral economics
• Decision science

Background:

• Expectations of future outcomes significantly influence major life decisions, including health, finances, and relationships.
• A common cognitive bias is optimism, where individuals overestimate the likelihood of preferred outcomes.
• It remains unclear if optimism persists with experience or is directly caused by desire, especially in consequential decisions involving learning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the persistence of optimistic bias in predictions despite experience and feedback.
• To determine if desire is a causal factor in optimistic bias.

Main Methods:

• Collected weekly predictions from National Football League (NFL) fans throughout the 2008 season.
• Analyzed prediction data for optimistic bias, considering accuracy incentives and feedback.
• Utilized variations in fan preferences and team matchups to isolate the effect of desirability.

Main Results:

• Optimistic bias in predictions for preferred teams remained consistent throughout the entire NFL season.
• The strength of optimism did not diminish over a 4-month period, indicating persistence with experience.
• Analysis confirmed that desirability, or wanting a preferred outcome, was a driving factor behind the observed optimistic bias.

Conclusions:

• Optimistic bias is a persistent phenomenon in decision-making, even when accurate feedback is available.
• Desire plays a causal role in fostering and maintaining optimistic expectations, independent of learning.
• Understanding the interplay of desire and experience is crucial for comprehending consequential decision-making.