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European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011
M Malvezzi1, A Arfé2, P Bertuccio3
1Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan; Department of Occupational Health, Section of Medical Statistics, University of Milan, Milan; Department of Medical Statistics, Biometry and Bioinformatics, National Tumor Institute, Milan, Italy.
Summary
Cancer mortality in Europe shows stable absolute numbers despite falling rates, with significant variations between Western and Eastern European countries. This trend highlights persistent disparities in cancer outcomes across the region.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Cancer mortality statistics are crucial for public health planning but often have a time lag.
- Understanding current cancer death trends is essential for effective intervention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the number of cancer deaths in the European Union (EU) in 2011.
- To analyze age-standardized cancer mortality rates and trends for selected cancer sites.
- To compare cancer mortality patterns between EU countries.
Main Methods:
- Utilized World Health Organization (WHO) mortality and population data.
- Employed a joinpoint model to estimate age-specific cancer deaths for 2011.
- Calculated age-standardized rates using EUROSTAT population estimates.
Main Results:
- Predicted 1,281,436 cancer deaths in the EU in 2011.
- Observed highest mortality rates in Poland; noted declining trends for many major cancers (stomach, colorectal, breast, prostate, leukemia, male lung).
- Identified increasing female lung cancer rates in most EU countries, except the UK; pancreatic cancer trends in women appear to be leveling off.
Conclusions:
- Absolute numbers of cancer deaths remain stable in Europe despite declining rates.
- A persistent gap in cancer mortality is expected between Western and former non-market economy countries.
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