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The world's technological capacity to store, communicate, and compute information.
Martin Hilbert1, Priscila López
1Annenberg School of Communication, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. mhilbert@usc.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 12, 2011
Summary
Global information technology capacity surged between 1986 and 2007. Computing power grew fastest at 58% annually, while digital storage and telecommunication also saw significant increases.
Area of Science:
- Information Science
- Computer Science
- Technology Studies
Background:
- Technological advancements have dramatically increased humanity's ability to process and store information.
- Understanding the scale and growth of global information technology is crucial for societal and economic analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the world's technological capacity for information storage, communication, and computation.
- To analyze the growth trends of these capacities from 1986 to 2007.
- To assess the transition from analog to digital technologies in these domains.
Main Methods:
- Estimation of global technological capacity across 60 analog and digital technologies.
- Tracking data from 1986 to 2007.
- Analysis of storage, communication, and computation capacities.
Main Results:
- In 2007, global storage capacity was 2.9 × 10^20 bytes, communication capacity was 2 × 10^21 bytes, and computing capacity was 6.4 × 10^18 instructions per second.
- General-purpose computing capacity grew by 58% annually.
- Telecommunication capacity grew by 28% annually, and stored information by 23% annually.
- Broadcasting (unidirectional information diffusion) grew modestly at 6% annually.
- Telecommunication became predominantly digital by 1990 (99.9% in 2007), and digital storage surpassed analog in the early 2000s (94% digital in 2007).
Conclusions:
- Humanity's technological capacity for information handling has expanded exponentially, particularly in computing and telecommunication.
- The digital revolution has fundamentally reshaped information storage and communication.
- Continued exponential growth in digital technologies presents both opportunities and challenges for the future.
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