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Environmental Change and Out-Migration: Evidence from Nepal
Douglas S Massey1, William G Axinn, Dirgha J Ghimire
1Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Population and Environment
|February 26, 2011
Summary
Environmental changes in Nepal, such as declining land cover and agricultural productivity, are linked to migration. These changes more strongly predict short-distance moves, with impacts varying by gender and ethnicity.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sociology
- Geography
Background:
- Scholars and activists have proposed a link between environmental change and human migration.
- Understanding this relationship is crucial for addressing population displacement and environmental sustainability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically test the hypothesis connecting environmental change and out-migration using data from Nepal.
- To investigate how different dimensions of environmental change influence migration decisions.
Main Methods:
- Operationalized environmental change using metrics like declining land cover, increased time for resource gathering, population density, and perceived agricultural productivity.
- Employed statistical models to analyze the relationship between environmental variables and migration distances (short vs. long-distance).
- Controlled for other social and economic factors influencing migration.
Main Results:
- Environmental change is more strongly associated with short-distance than long-distance migration.
- Local moves are predicted by perceived declines in agricultural productivity, declining land cover, and increased time to gather firewood.
- Long-distance moves are also predicted by perceived declines in productivity, though the effect is less pronounced.
- The impact of environmental change on migration varies by gender and ethnicity.
Conclusions:
- Environmental degradation and resource scarcity in Nepal are significant drivers of migration, particularly for shorter distances.
- Specific environmental changes disproportionately affect different demographic groups, highlighting the intersectionality of environmental and social factors in migration.
- Findings underscore the need for targeted environmental and social policies to mitigate environmentally-induced migration.
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