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Bayesian space-time analysis of Echinococcus multilocularis-infections in foxes
Christoph Staubach1, Lothar Hoffmann, Volker J Schmid
1Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Seestr. 55, 16868 Wusterhausen, Germany.
Veterinary Parasitology
|March 4, 2011
Summary
The prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes across Thuringia, Germany, significantly increased from 1990 to 2005. This parasite, causing human alveolar echinococcosis, has expanded its range, necessitating increased public health awareness.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Parasitology
- Epidemiology
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Alveolar echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus multilocularis, is a significant zoonotic disease.
- Foxes are a primary definitive host for E. multilocularis, making them key indicators of parasite distribution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis infection in foxes in Thuringia, Germany.
- To assess changes in parasite prevalence and geographic spread between 1990 and 2009.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 26,220 hunted or found dead foxes from Thuringia (1990-2009).
- Application of a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model incorporating location and date data.
- Utilized Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation for parameter estimation and variability assessment.
Main Results:
- Prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes increased from 11.9% in 1990 to 42.0% in 2005.
- The parasite's distribution expanded from northwestern Thuringia in 1990 to the entire state by 2004.
- A total of 6,853 infected foxes were identified during the study period.
Conclusions:
- The study demonstrates a substantial increase and geographic expansion of Echinococcus multilocularis in the fox population of Thuringia.
- These findings highlight an elevated risk for human alveolar echinococcosis in the region.
- Increased surveillance and public health vigilance are recommended.
