Physics-based de novo prediction of RNA 3D structures

Current experiments on structural determination cannot keep up the pace with the steadily emerging RNA sequences and new functions. This underscores the request for an accurate model for RNA three-dimensional (3D) structural prediction. Although considerable progress has been made in mechanistic studies, accurate prediction for RNA tertiary folding from sequence remains an unsolved problem. The first and most important requirement for the prediction of RNA structure from physical principles is an accurate free energy model. A recently developed three-vector virtual bond-based RNA folding model ("Vfold") has allowed us to compute the chain entropy and predict folding free energies and structures for RNA secondary structures and simple pseudoknots. Here we develop a free energy-based method to predict larger more complex RNA tertiary folds. The approach is based on a multiscaling strategy: from the nucleotide sequence, we predict the two-dimensional (2D) structures (defined by the base pairs and tertiary contacts); based on the 2D structure, we construct a 3D scaffold; with the 3D scaffold as the initial state, we combine AMBER energy minimization and PDB-based fragment search to predict the all-atom structure. A key advantage of the approach is the statistical mechanical calculation for the conformational entropy of RNA structures, including those with cross-linked loops. Benchmark tests show that the model leads to significant improvements in RNA 3D structure prediction.