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[Dental manpower prediction in Israel for 2017]
1Dept. of Community Dentistry, The Hebrew University, Hadassah Faculty of Dental Medicine, Jerusalem.
Refu'At Ha-Peh Veha-Shinayim (1993)
|April 14, 2011
Summary
A 2008 study predicts a dentist shortage in Israel by 2017, with a projected 1 dentist per 1400 population. This highlights an urgent need for strategic planning in dental workforce management.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Workforce Planning
- Dental Epidemiology
Background:
- The Israeli dental workforce in 2008 was estimated at 5800 active dentists, a figure lower than reported by the Ministry of Health.
- Existing data suggests a potential discrepancy in reported dentist numbers, necessitating a re-evaluation of workforce projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the future number of active dentists in Israel by 2017.
- To analyze the dentist-to-population ratio in Israel and compare it internationally.
- To identify potential workforce shortages and inform future planning.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the manpower-to-population ratio method for projections.
- Incorporated data on estimated Israeli dental graduates and immigration of dentists.
- Applied a 3% attrition rate, assuming negligible emigration of dentists.
Main Results:
- Projected 6090 active dentists in Israel by 2017.
- Estimated a dentist-to-population ratio of 1:1400 by 2017.
- This ratio, while high internationally, is considered high for Israel and may indicate a shift towards private practice.
Conclusions:
- A significant shortage of dentists is predicted in Israel in the near future.
- Urgent evaluation and strategic planning are required to address the projected dental workforce deficit.
- Potential shifts in practice settings may influence workforce distribution and availability.
