Coupling multi-criteria decision analysis, life-cycle assessment, and risk assessment for emerging threats

Emerging environmental threats such as novel chemical compounds, biological agents, and nanomaterials present serious challenges to traditional models of risk analysis and regulatory risk management processes. Even a massive expansion of risk and life-cycle assessment research efforts is unlikely to keep pace with rapid technological change resulting in new and modified materials with changing properties. Therefore, it is essential to have a framework for interpreting available information in the context of high uncertainty and a strategy for prioritizing research efforts to reduce those uncertainties that are most critical. We discuss how integrating the three analytic approaches of risk assessment, life-cycle assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis into a framework permits understanding uncertainty and prioritizes needs for scientific research. Our approach is illustrated with two separate cases: nanomaterials and contaminated sediment remediation.