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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 2, 2026

Using Eye Movements Recorded in the Visual World Paradigm to Explore the Online Processing of Spoken Language
09:27

Using Eye Movements Recorded in the Visual World Paradigm to Explore the Online Processing of Spoken Language

Published on: October 13, 2018

Source reliability and the conjunction fallacy.

Andreas Jarvstad1, Ulrike Hahn

  • 1School of Psychology, Cardiff University, UK. jarvstad@cardiff.ac.uk

Cognitive Science
|May 14, 2011
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study tested a model explaining the conjunction fallacy by considering source reliability. The model

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Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
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Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: May 9, 2019

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jun 2, 2026

Using Eye Movements Recorded in the Visual World Paradigm to Explore the Online Processing of Spoken Language
09:27

Using Eye Movements Recorded in the Visual World Paradigm to Explore the Online Processing of Spoken Language

Published on: October 13, 2018

Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
05:22

Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: May 9, 2019

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Rational reasoning often involves assessing information source reliability.
  • The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunction of events as more probable than one of its constituents.
  • Bovens and Hartmann (2003) proposed a model where source reliability influences conjunction fallacy rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically assess the validity of Bovens and Hartmann's (2003) model of the conjunction fallacy.
  • To investigate whether source reliability influences conjunction fallacy incidence as predicted by the model.
  • To examine if people estimate source reliability based on statement likelihood.

Main Methods:

  • Three experiments were conducted to test the model's predictions.
  • Experiment 1: Assessed the impact of adding statements to conjunction problems.
  • Experiment 3: Compared fallacy rates for reliable versus unreliable sources.
  • Experiment 2: Examined derivation of source reliability estimates.

Main Results:

  • The model's predictions regarding changes in fallacy incidence due to added statements were not confirmed (Experiment 1).
  • The prediction that reliable sources increase fallacy rates was not supported (Experiment 3).
  • Experiment 2 showed participants could estimate source reliability from statement likelihood, aligning with the model.

Conclusions:

  • The empirical evidence provides limited support for Bovens and Hartmann's (2003) model of the conjunction fallacy.
  • The model does not fully account for human judgment in standard conjunction fallacy tasks.
  • Further research is needed to refine models of reasoning under uncertainty and source credibility.