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Related Concept Videos

Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the brain can only use...
Decision Making01:20

Decision Making

Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
Decision Making: Traditional Method01:14

Decision Making: Traditional Method

The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic01:25

The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the $2,000...
Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

Decision Making: P-value Method

The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim  is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses:  a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can have a...
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Researchers have tested many persuasion strategies, including the foot-in-the door and the door-in-the-face techniques, in a variety of contexts. Ultimately, the principles are effective in selling products and changing people’s attitude, ideas, and behaviors (Cialdini & Goldstein, 2004).

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Operant Protocols for Assessing the Cost-benefit Analysis During Reinforced Decision Making by Rodents
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Operant Protocols for Assessing the Cost-benefit Analysis During Reinforced Decision Making by Rodents

Published on: September 10, 2018

Before you make that big decision...

Daniel Kahneman1, Dan Lovallo, Olivier Sibony

  • 1Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, USA.

Harvard Business Review
|July 1, 2011
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Executives can improve strategic decision-making by using a 12-question checklist to identify and mitigate cognitive biases in team recommendations. This structured approach enhances decision quality and boosts investment returns.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Organizational Behavior

Background:

  • Strategic decision-making often relies on team proposals, but cognitive biases can distort reasoning.
  • Biases such as confirmation bias and overconfidence can lead to flawed analysis and poor business investments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide executives with a practical tool to identify and neutralize cognitive biases in team decision-making processes.
  • To improve the quality of strategic decisions and enhance organizational investment returns.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a 12-question checklist by experts in cognitive biases and strategy.
  • The checklist prompts examination of alternatives, information gathering, data validation, and potential influences like self-interest or past decisions.

Main Results:

  • Implementation of the checklist helps uncover and mitigate defects in team thinking.
  • Reducing the effects of bias in business investments can increase returns on investment by up to seven percentage points.

Conclusions:

  • A disciplined decision-making process, rather than individual expertise, is crucial for effective strategy.
  • Executives should systematically review the recommendation process, not just the content, to reduce bias and improve outcomes.