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The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.
Giovanni Pezzulo1, Francesco Rigoli
1Istituto di Linguistica Computazionale "Antonio Zampolli," Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Pisa, Italy.
Frontiers in Neuroscience
|July 13, 2011
Summary
Humans can plan for the future by anticipating future motivational states, influencing decision-making. This neuroeconomic model incorporates prospection, or future anticipation, into utility maximization for better understanding of planning and dread.
Area of Science:
- Neuroeconomics
- Cognitive Science
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Traditional decision-making models focus on intrinsic outcome value tied to current motivation.
- These models overlook human prospection abilities: anticipating future mental and emotional states.
Purpose of the Study:
- To offer a formal framework for neuroeconomic research on prospection's impact on decision-making.
- To integrate anticipated future states into utility-maximization models.
Main Methods:
- Utilizes model-based Bayesian inference to model anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes.
- Incorporates anticipations into utility maximization for outcome evaluation and as outcomes with inherent value.
Main Results:
- Demonstrates how anticipated motivational states (e.g., hunger) alter outcome valuation.
- Shows that anticipated mental processes (e.g., dread) can be valued as costs, influencing choices.
Conclusions:
- The proposed model reconciles utility maximization with psychological phenomena like future planning and dread.
- Provides a framework for understanding how prospection shapes value-based decision-making.
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