Risk factors for mortality in major digestive surgery in the elderly: a multicenter prospective study

To identify the mortality risk factors of elderly patients (≥65 years old) during major digestive surgery, as defined according to the complexity of the operation.

In the aging populations of developed countries, the incidence rate of major digestive surgery is currently on the rise and is associated with a high mortality rate. Consequently, validated indicators must be developed to improve elderly patients' surgical care and outcomes.

We acquired data from a multicenter prospective cohort that included 3322 consecutive patients undergoing major digestive surgery across 47 different facilities. We assessed 27 pre-, intra-, and postoperative demographic and clinical variables. A multivariate analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors of mortality in elderly patients (n = 1796). Young patients were used as a control group, and the end-point was defined as 30-day postoperative mortality.

In the entire cohort, postoperative mortality increased significantly among patients aged 65-74 years, and an age ≥65 years was by itself an independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-3.59; P = 0.001). The mortality rate among elderly patients was 10.6%. Six independent risk factors of mortality were characteristic of the elderly patients: age ≥85 years (OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.08-6.31; P = 0.032), emergency (OR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.67-6.99; P = 0.001), anemia (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.02-3.17; P = 0.041), white cell count > 10,000/mm³ (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.08-3.35; P = 0.024), ASA class IV (OR, 9.86; 95% CI, 1.77-54.7; P = 0.009) and a palliative cancer operation (OR, 4.03; 95% CI, 1.99-8.19; P < 0.001).

Characterization of independent validated risk indicators for mortality in elderly patients undergoing major digestive surgery is essential and may lead to an efficient specific workup, which constitutes a necessary step to developing a dedicated score for elderly patients.