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Imagining what might be: why children underestimate uncertainty
Sarah R Beck1, Kerry L T McColgan, Elizabeth J Robinson
1School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK. s.r.beck@bham.ac.uk
Journal of Experimental Child Psychology
|July 30, 2011
Summary
Children often overestimate their knowledge of uncertain events. This tendency lessens when outcomes are undetermined or difficult to imagine, suggesting imagination influences their perception of uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Development
- Developmental Psychology
- Child Psychology
Background:
- Children frequently overestimate their knowledge, especially concerning uncertain future events.
- This overconfidence can be influenced by cognitive biases similar to those observed in adults.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how the determination and imaginability of outcomes affect children's estimation of uncertainty.
- To explore the role of vivid imagination in children's underestimation of uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Experiment 1: 5- and 6-year-olds (N=61) guessed the location of a known object under determined vs. undetermined conditions.
- Experiment 2: 5- and 6-year-olds (N=29) identified hidden object locations when object identity was known vs. unknown.
Main Results:
- Children preferred guessing when the object's location was determined, but not when its identity was unknown.
- Children were more accurate in marking possible locations when the hidden object's identity was unknown.
Conclusions:
- Children's tendency to underestimate uncertainty is reduced when outcomes are not yet determined or are difficult to imagine.
- Vivid imagination in children may contribute to underestimating uncertainty, akin to imagination inflation in adults.
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