Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 29, 2026
06:48
Assessing Intertidal Populations of the Invasive European Green Crab
Published on: September 16, 2020
Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate
Solomon M Hsiang1, Kyle C Meng, Mark A Cane
1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA. shsiang@princeton.edu
Nature
|August 26, 2011
Summary
Global climate shifts, specifically El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in tropical regions. This research links climate patterns to modern societal stability and conflict occurrence.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Political Science
- Sociology
Background:
- Previous research suggested climate's role in historical societal collapse but lacked direct evidence for modern conflict.
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant global climate pattern influencing interannual climate variability.
Observation:
- Analysis of civil conflict data from 1950 to 2004 was conducted.
- The study focused on the correlation between ENSO phases and the emergence of new civil conflicts.
Findings:
- The probability of new civil conflicts in tropical regions doubles during El Niño years compared to La Niña years.
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are associated with a substantial portion of modern civil conflicts.
Implications:
- This study provides the first quantitative evidence linking global climate patterns to modern civil conflict.
- Findings suggest that climate stability is a crucial factor for modern societal stability and conflict prevention.
Related Concept Videos
01:50Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
01:16What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
01:27Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
01:07What is Weather?
Overview
01:14The Carbon Cycle
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.