Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 28, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
A statistical model for hospital admissions caused by seasonal diseases
David Moriña1, Pedro Puig, José Ríos
1Centre Tecnològic de Nutrició i Salut (CTNS), TECNIO, CEICS, Reus, Spain. david.morina@ctns.cat
Abstract:
We present a model based on two-order integer-valued autoregressive time series to analyze the number of hospital emergency service arrivals caused by diseases that present seasonal behavior. We also introduce a method to describe this seasonality, on the basis of Poisson innovations with monthly means. We show parameter estimation by maximum likelihood and model validation and show several methods for forecasting, on the basis of long-time means and short-time and long-time prediction regions. We analyze an application to model the number of hospital admissions per week caused by influenza.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results from...
Introduction To Survival Analysis
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time until a...