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Updated: May 22, 2026
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Decision making for risk management: a comparison of graphical methods for presenting quantitative uncertainty
John A Edwards1, Frank J Snyder, Pamela M Allen
1Department of Psychology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA. jedwards@oregonstate.edu
Summary
Graphical displays impact decision accuracy with probability information. Error bars and boxplots improved accuracy, while time pressure decreased performance in decision-making tasks.
Area of Science:
- Decision Science
- Data Visualization
- Cognitive Psychology
Background:
- Individuals often make errors when using probability information for decision-making.
- Limited research exists on the accuracy of decisions based on common probabilistic display methods.
- Graphical displays are frequently used to present probabilistic information.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of various graphical display methods in communicating probabilistic information.
- To assess how different display methods influence decision-maker accuracy and confidence.
- To examine the impact of time pressure on decision accuracy with probabilistic displays.
Main Methods:
- Two experiments were conducted using ten common graphical display methods.
- Participants interpreted probabilistic outcomes across eight scenarios.
- Tasks included graph interpretation (e.g., mean estimation) and behavioral choices (act/do not act).
- The second experiment introduced time pressure.
Main Results:
- Decision-maker accuracy varied significantly across different graphical methods.
- Error bars and boxplots yielded the highest accuracy for mean estimation and behavioral choices.
- Complementary cumulative probability distribution functions showed the highest accuracy for probability estimation.
- Time pressure led to decreased performance in behavioral choices.
Conclusions:
- The choice of graphical display method significantly affects decision accuracy with probabilistic information.
- Error bars and boxplots are more effective for certain decision tasks, while CDFs are better for probability estimation.
- Time constraints exacerbate errors in probabilistic decision-making, highlighting the importance of display method selection.
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