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Published on: September 16, 2015
Different varieties of uncertainty in human decision-making
Amy R Bland1, Alexandre Schaefer
1Neuroscience and Psychiatry Unit, University of Manchester Manchester, UK.
Frontiers in Neuroscience
|June 16, 2012
Summary
This study distinguishes between expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty, and volatility in decision-making. It explores how the brain processes these distinct uncertainty types using neuroimaging and control theories.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Neuroscience
- Computational Neuroscience
- Neuroscience
Background:
- Decision-making research increasingly focuses on understanding uncertainty.
- Existing literature distinguishes between risk, ambiguity, and expected/unexpected uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review empirical and theoretical evidence for distinguishing expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty, and volatility.
- To explore the less-appreciated distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.
- To investigate cognitive control mechanisms for managing these uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- Review of neuroimaging studies
- Review of neuromodulation studies
- Review of electrophysiological studies
- Theoretical analysis using dual modes of control theory
Main Results:
- Evidence suggests distinct neural processing for expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty, and volatility.
- Unexpected uncertainty and volatility show less appreciated distinctions.
- Cognitive control mechanisms may differ for each uncertainty type.
Conclusions:
- The distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility is crucial for understanding decision-making under uncertainty.
- Dual modes of control theory may offer a framework for differentiating these processes.
- Further research is needed to fully elucidate the neural basis of distinct uncertainty processing.
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