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A system dynamics model for simulating ambulatory health care demands
Rafael Diaz1, Joshua G Behr, Mandar Tulpule
1Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23435, USA. rdiaz@odu.edu
Summary
System dynamics modeling accurately projects U.S. ambulatory health care demand for the general population and specific groups. This approach aids health resource planning and intervention assessment.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Health Economics
- Computational Health Science
Background:
- System dynamics modeling offers a robust method for simulating U.S. ambulatory health care demand.
- Understanding demand patterns is crucial for effective health resource planning and intervention evaluation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate the utility of system dynamics for modeling U.S. ambulatory health care service demand.
- To simulate demand for both the general population and specific demographic cohorts between 2003 and 2008.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a cohort-component method integrated with structural modeling.
- Employed data from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey.
Main Results:
- Model validation showed low average percent error (1.5%) for the total population simulation.
- Simulations for selected subsets (e.g., age, race, insurance) yielded an average error of 7.05%.
Conclusions:
- The system dynamics model accurately represents and mimics ambulatory health care demand across different population segments.
- This approach can identify health disparities and serve as a tool for testing interventions and informing policy.
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