Application of conditional probability analysis to distant metastases from lung cancer

The aim of this study was to reveal whether there was non-randomness in the occurrence of metastasis and, if the non-randomness was denied, whether there were specific metastatic patterns in lung cancer patients. Patients who presented with pathologically diagnosed lung cancer between January 1986 and March 2009 at our hospitals were included. A statistical method and conditional probability analysis were used to analyze the data. Under the condition of one metastatic organ A (lung, bone, brain, liver or adrenal gland; the 5 most common metastatic organs), we determined the conditional probability of distant metastasis to a specific organ B, which was written as P(B | A), and compared it with the probability of distant metastasis P(B). The study group consisted of 1,994 patients. Of the 1,994 patients, 839 (42.1%) had distant metastases at the time of the initial diagnosis of lung cancer. With the exception of the comparisons between P(lung) and P(lung | adrenal gland) and between P(adrenal gland) and P(adrenal gland | lung), there were statistically significant differences between P(B | A) and P(B) in the 5 metastatic organs. In addition, P(B | A) and P(C | B | A) varied according to each organ and P(confined to A), P(confined to A and B) and P(confined to A, B and C) were different in each metastatic organ. In lung cancer patients, distant metastasis occurred non-randomly and there may be certain specific patterns of distant metastasis. The accumulation of knowledge of specific patterns of metastasis may aid the approach to individualized treatments.